Lobstercon 2025 - Premodern Report

Yes, I just published the 2024 Lobstercon Report earlier this week. Check it out if you are interested in old news.

This year, Lobstercon is split into two different weekends. The first weekend for the North American Premodern Championship took place May 2-3.

I took the train up from New Jersey with no issues. It was super convenient to get to South Station in Boston, and from there it was a very short subway ride to Kendall Square and the hotel. I met up with DG and his local friend Matthias. We had dinner and drinks at a couple of spots in the area, but it was mostly dead. Kendall Square just not as happening as other Cambridge squares I hear (and now I've seen for myself).

Friday - Unchained

The Unchained side event allowed players to choose one card on the Premodern banlist to play up to four copies of.

I played UR Draco Explosion with Brainstorm. 

I knew Brainstorm would not be the most powerful card to unban. In fact, it might be one of the worst options. However, I wanted to brew something unique for the format and not just add Force of Will to a StifleNought shell. Huge shame to everyone who did that.

Lots of possible ways to build the deck including Cunning Wish / Insidious Dreams, Intuition / AK, Burning Wish, etc. I ended up on this version because I wanted lots of cheap interaction for the other combo decks I expected like Food Chain Goblins, Storm, Bargain, and Balance. Force Spike and Mana Leak seemed like the most efficient ways to do that. 

Maxing out Draco, Erratic Explosion, and Scroll Rack really meant the rest of the deck needed to be low cost but effective. You want to have a lot of cards in hand to make Rack better and Gush didn't quite work. I didn't think there would be enough time for lots of Fact or Fiction, Intuition/AK, or Prophetic Bolt. Predict was cheap enough and had enough synergy, especially after swapping Memory Lapse for the Mana Leaks.

Doing the last 4 damage is tricky when there aren't a bunch of shocklands in opposing decks. Faerie Conclave made the most sense to save on deck space. Prophetic Bolt was an option, but expensive. Psionic Blast isn't legal, Sonic Burst is really bad, Lightning Bolt only does 3 damage, Fire/ Ice only 2. Lavamancer  made the most sense with the full graveyard from fetches and Predicts, plus it was only one mana. It did open up opposing creature removal, but I didn't expect all that much removal in the format. Breath of Darigaaz is a sweeper that doubles as 4 damage to the face.

Sideboard was just picking cards I knew I wanted vs other banned cards - Pyroblast for Force of Will, Hydroblast for Recruiter and Burning Wish, Teferi's Response for Strip Mine, Furnace for Rector / Yawgwill / Entomb, Envolop for Mind Twist / Balance / Time Spiral / YawgWill. I think I boarded in every card at least twice except the Pyromancy which was mostly a meme.

Round 1 - Carl Winter on BW Saber Bargain (feature match)

Game one I Force Spike his turn three Rector. His only black source is Phyrexian Tower, so I have time to set up. I get Scroll Rack in play. I let him resolve Therapy for Counterspell. He then uses multiple rituals to cast Bargain, which I Brainstorm and Memory Lapse. I then use Predict to get rid of the Bargain. He casts a Skirge Familiar and attacks. This opens up the line for end of turn Lightning Bolt, untap to Explosion for 16 and attack with Conclave for the last points. 

Game two he kills me on turn two when I don't have Annul. 

Game three I Envelop his Therapy and use Furnace to exile it. I Annul his Defense Grid and then Force Spike something. He's taken at least 4 damage from his Ancient Tomb, so when I topdeck Draco to go with the Brainstorm and Explosion in my hand, I win.

1-0

Round 2 - UB Dreadnought with Psychatog and Force of Will

Game one he had Dreanought on turn three. I had Memory Lapse for Stifle, but he had second Stifle. I die. 

Game two he is doing a lot of digging with Impulse and Opt. He plays two Portent on his turn and leaves on top. I go for end of turn Predict targeting him, planning to name Dreadnought. He is forced to use Force of Will so that he doesn't lose the combo piece. I have Annul for the Dreadnought on the following turn. I resolve Scroll Rack and Explode a few turns later. 

Game three he has turn two Dreadnought with Stifle and Force of Will for my Annul and I die.

1-1

Round 3 - Sligh with Wasteland and Strip Mine

Game one he has Strip Mine and Wasteland to keep me off of double blue mana. I die with multiple Counterspell in hand. 

Game two I use Breath of Darigaaz on his Grim Lavamancer, but his follow up Mogg Fanatic starts beating down. I don't have a ton of interaction so I have to keep Hydroblast up as much as possible. Eventually I get Scroll Rack and Explode him to 3 life, but can't find a way to finish him off before he kills me.

1-2

Round 4 - Marc Flore on GWR Sylvan/Abundance/Balance/Burning Wish

Game one he is on the play and has Enlightened Tutor for Defense Grid before I'm able to Predict it away. I counterspell his Armageddon, but eventually he finds Sylvan + Abundance. Some turns later I'm hit with Squandered Resources plus Balance, then die to his Rack. 

Game two I counter his early Sphere of Resistance, but I'm stuck on three lands. I stick Scroll Rack, but that lets him resolve Sylvan Library. I'm still digging for lands, but he was down cards from two Enlightened Tutor. He decides to pay 8 life to get back into it. That lets me combo him out easily. 

Game three he has early Sphere of Resistance. I manage to play enough lands to stick a Scroll Rack and Envelop his Burning Wish. I can't find the sixth land to let me attack with Conclave to set up my Explosion. He has Abundance, but no Sylvan. He keeps hitting bricks like Mox Diamond and Gustha's Scepter. Eventually he hits Sylvan, which I Memory Lapse. This lets me take a turn off, since he can't hit a non-land that would punish me. I win with Explosion on the third extra turn.

2-2

Round 5 vs DG on Balancing Tings

We tested a lot together for the main event, but did no testing for Unchained. I think I'm slightly favored, but he has some lines that are hard for me to beat. 

Game one he goes for a Balancing Act when I have four lands. I float four mana and let it resolves, which causes me to lose my lands but no discards. I cast Fact or Fiction when he moves to attacks. I take the pile with more lands, and then he resolves a second Balancing Act. I discard some dead cards and now were both at parity. I recover with some lands and have Lapse plus Predict to pull ahead. I keep drawing more counters and lands. This lets me attack with Conclave. Eventually, Lavamancer joins and I still had all these counters at the end. 

Game two he does what I fear most: untapped land, LED, Roar of the Wurm. I have Lavamancer and Conclave to buy some time, but can't assemble the combo to win the race. In the end I have to Explosion his Wurm and pray, but it is a brick. 

Game three he should have won 100%, but he just forgot to cast Orim's Chant. I Envelop his Balance and he concedes to drop.

3-2

Round 6 vs Hatred

Game one he has Demonic Consultation for Hatred for lethal... but I have Force Spike! I don't have a combo kill though, and die to his shadow army before I can recover. 

Game two he consults for Dark Ritual. He then plays Mesmeric Fiend and Duress, taking my Counterspell and Breath of Darigaaz. I draw Grim Lavamancer though, which kills Fiend and lets me Breath two more guys. A second Lavamancer locks the game up and I kill him with Conclave. 

Game three I counter his Mesmiric Fiend and use Lightning Bolt on a shadow guy. I cast Scroll Rack and he resolves Skittering Skirge. I can't use Breath of Darigaaz, so instead I just Brainstorm and Explosion his face for 16. Now I can't die to Hatred, and I can use the Breath for the last 4 points the following turn.

4-2

10th Place

This tournament was a lot of fun. A lot of the cards on the ban list are fairly open ended and there are multiple ways to build with them. I don't know how well it would work in something like Legacy or Modern where some of the banned cards go into specific decks. I hope they do this or something similar next year.

I ate a bunch of pizza at the event site, then went to go watch Rockets Warriors Game 6. The Rockets rewarded my commitment to staying up late with a win.

Saturday - NA Premodern Championship

I played mostly stock elves.

I haven't played a ton with this besides the fall RST MS league, but it impressed me enough to be a front runner for this event. I tried some Goblins but didn't like the way it mulliganed. I played some games against DG's WW deck because it looked like something I would enjoy, but it did not impress me at all. So I was back at Elves as the default. 

Some notes: I can't imagine playing only 17 or 18 land. Playing colorless land like Port or Wasteland also seems crazy to me. I don't really see a need for Kahmal when Tribal Forcemage is usually enough and cheaper, but maybe I'm missing something. 

I probably played too many Crypts in the sideboard due to my Middle School experience. I never brought them in. Pyroblast is a luxury but I like to have a third way to kill Meddling Mage after sideboard while still being playable in other matchups. Thornscape is great even without white and without Birchlore Rangers. Genesis didn't do anything, but I think you have to have it. Call of the Herd was about as good as I wanted it to be. I cut the fourth call last minute, but certainly happy to have all of them.

Round 1 vs Cam Fulton on Lan D HOath

Game one he plays turn two Mulch and turn three Mulch. I kill him on my turn three. 

Game two I play turn one Elf instead of Lyrist, but he has the Oath. I figure I have time to set up and kill Oath after he hits first Terravore. Unfortunately, his first Terravore is 20/20. I kill his Oath and use Vigilante to kill his Powder Keg. I chump with Vigilante to go to 2 life, then kill him on my turn four.

1-0

Round 2 vs Andy Levine on MonoU Tide Control

Game one I have enough mana creatures in play that his Tide plus Chain doesn't hinder me. I eventually resolve a Hermit and he shows me three Tide in hand as he scoops.

Game two I have turn two Call of the Herd, but he has Counterspell into Phyrexian Furnace. I have some mana creatures, but no payoff. His Factory and Quicksand keep me from doing any chip damage. This frees him up to resolve Accumulated Knowledge and Fact or Fictions end of my turn. Eventually he gets a Powder Keg to clear the important cards. He kills me with two Faerie Conclaves.

Game three he has Keg but no blue mana early. I Naturalize the Keg and use Survival to search up Anger and Squee. He has to choose between exiling Squee and Anger with his Furnace. He goes with Squee since I showed no creatures in hand. I draw a creature anyway to find Hermit. I bounce it on his EOT to replay it. He counters, but I just return another creature to search up the second Hermit and win. 

2-0

Round 3 vs Goblins

Game one his first play is a Piledriver and no removal for my Priest. I play a Hermit and a Tangle Wire and win.

Game two I have Acolyte and Call of the Herd to block his early Lackey. He does have Sharpshooter though, so now the Elephants have to do the heavy lifting. I manage to resolve Survival, but he has Naturalize. This means I can only go get Battlemage and Symbiote without getting Anger or Sharpshooter. I sue Battlemage and Symbiote to buy some time, but he has just enough removal to force through damage until I'm at 2 life. I stabilize the board with more Elephants and a Genesis, but he finds Siege Gang Commander to kill me.

Game three I have turn two Call of the Herd for his Lackey. I'm tight on mana but manage to flash back the Call eventually. He only has Karplusan Forests as his red sources, so I get some damage in with Elephants. I finally hit five mana and kill him with Tribal Force Mage on Elephant.

3-0

Round 4 vs Dave Kaplan on MonoU StifleNought

Game one I have a ton of mana and nothing to do. He holds up two blue mana the whole game and eventually sticks 12/12. I almost get him with Caller of the Claw plus Symbiote for four tokens when he uses Keg but he finally played the counter he represented the whole game.

Game two I have solid start with Elf and Priest. I play a Survival as bait, which he counters, and then I stick a Hermit. He takes some damage but clears the tokens with a Keg. I hard cast Anger to continue the beats but he counters it. This gives my team haste so my hard cast Vigilante he has to Foil. Finally I resolve Orangutan to attack him to 1 life. He untaps and plays Portent, then concedes. 

Game three he spins wheels first two turns with cantrips while I have Symbiote Priest Cradle and Acolyte. He jams his combo on turn three after Gushing. I play a Tangle Wire as bait, which he has the Annul for. Now that he's tapped out, I Naturalize the 12/12. He has Powder Keg on his turn, but I have Orangutan and win from there when I draw another Tangle Wire.

4-0

Round 5 vs Noah Mickel on MonoU StifleNought

This was on stream: link

Game one I punt at least four different times. On turn three, I'm facing a phased-out Dreanought with a Llanowar Elf and Priest of Titania in play. I play Survival and search up Ranger to untap Priest, then I search for Squee and Nantuko Vigilante. Searching for Squee means I don't have the mana needed to pay for his Daze and my Vigilanted is countered. I did not need to search for Squee here as I was fairly certain he had Daze from the way he played. Then two turns later I forget to return Squee to my hand. This meant I was one creature in hand short after I trade my Squirrels and Elves for his Dreadnought. Additionally, I left myself with just Symbiote and Hermit, instead of Hermit and Priest which would give me more mana (I can always search for another Symbiote). Finally, another punt by just jamming the Hermit into his Counterspell instead of using Squee and putting more pressure into play. 

Game two I keep an iffy hand that doesn't have payoff but does have Tangle Wire and Pyroblast. I maybe make a mistake by not paying echo for Granger instead returning it with Symbiote. This costs me 2 damage, but I only manage to attack him to 3 life before he kills me with Annul for my Tangle Wire and Foil backup for my Pyroblast.

4-1

Round 6 vs Sligh

This is truly more Sligh than burn, as he has Wasteland and Port along with Fledgling Dragon!

Game one he kills enough of my mana creatures that he's in control, but doesn't have a fast clock. I manage to resolve a Deranged Hermit, but he has a Fledgling Dragon. He takes 8 from my Squirrels then kills me with Fireblast plus Firebreathing. 

Game two I have great hand on the play with four mana elves, Survival, Forest, and Cradle. I play elf turn one, he has Lavamancer. I play two more elves and Survival off Cradle, searching up Squee. He has Wasteland for my Cradle and then kills one elf. I never draw another land and eventually he kills all my mana and locks me out with Port. I should have searched up Granger turn one so I could cast it turn two through his Wasteland and removal.

4-2

Round 7 vs MonoBlack Clerics

Game one I punt by playing turn two Priest instead of Survival. He hits with his Therapy and I draw nothing but lands.

Game two I win on mulligan to five thanks to Call of the Herd and Tribal Forcemage.

Game three I have to jam multiple creatures into his turn two Dystopia to not just sit around doing nothing. I do manage to get somewhat of a board with an Elephant and Llanowar Elf. I make a dumb attack with the Elephant into his active Supplicant and lose it to Scion of Darkness. This compounds when I draw Deranged Hermit and can't afford to play around removal when blocking. He does have the Snuff Out and returns Hermit with Scion and I'm toast.

4-3

Too many punts in last three rounds so I drop to go eat some delicious Taiwanese food.

The Aftermath

I had plenty of time to think about things on the train ride home, especially after it was stuck for 30 minutes outside Connecticut. Then it was cancelled after NYC. The difference in travel to Lobstercon and the return is an apt metaphor for my tournament. I know I need to be in better Magic shape if I'm ever going to have success, but I'm not sure what the best way to get that is. 

I had a great time and I think I may actually have some fire for playing more Premodern. I like Elves even more than before and may focus on it going forward.

Thanks,

Ty

Props:

Duress Crew for running everything

DFB and Jared for all they do as well. 

Nate Gates for his top 8

DG for testing

Will Lowry for doing most of the heavy lifting building the Erratic Explosion deck

Tony Ho for winning sick feature match r4 and seeing you in person first time in over 5 years

Slops:

Everyone who played Force of Will + Dreadnough in Unchained. Yes, even you SWB. Just because you are cool and everyone likes you and you won the event doesn't mean you can avoid these slops

People who didn't sign up for the Shockland event - maybe next year

Phyrexian Dreadnought in general

LobsterCon 2024 Report

I guess I should publish this before publishing my 2025 Premodern Lobstercon Report. This was originally drafted in November 2024, but not published until May 2025

Lobstercon was great!

My wife had a conference to attend at Harvard the week prior, so we made a trip out of it. We drove up Monday afternoon. We had dinner at Daedalus on recommendation from DFB. The rooftop was nice and the food was tasty. The drinks were fine.

Tuesday through Thursday I worked from the hotel room while my wife was at her conference. Wusong Tiki Bar was excellent dinner on Tuesday. I ventured out alone to a bar called Joe Sent Me for some trivia. I was one point out of first place before the final wager round. I failed to answer that question correctly though and finished in 5th place I think.

Wednesday evening I made it out to Moogy's. I finally played my first AAA games. I won a Pendelhaven (Anthologies!) off DFB and he won a Bird off me. I would have won the second game if I just didn't play the Bird, not a good sign for how sharp I want to be for the weekend.

Premodern

I played GW Oath. Thought there would be more mirrors, less goblins/elves, and wanted to have white cards in the sideboard. (its been 6 months or so, and any analysis probably outdated. Interestingly I played a Call of the Herd deck again though...)

Round 1 - Michael Belfanti on GB RecSur

Game one I have turn two Oath after his turn one Birds of Paradise. I Oath into a 0/0 Terravore. He lands a Survival but I have two LD spells for his green sources and he doesn't have enough resources to race the next to Terravores. Game two we play draw go for a few turns. It is clear he has an answer for Oath, but I didn't draw it this game. I play a Call of the Herd and he has Faceless Butcher and Bone Shredder to answer. I land a Sylvan but he doesn't use his Naturalize on it. I manage to draw three extra cards plus the selection while he floods out. Eventually I get another Call and a Terravore to trade with his board to stop any future Recurring Nightmare. He draws a Survival but only gets one activation as I have Ray of Revelation. I do draw Oath which gets Naturalized but at this point the Sylvan has done too much damage and I win.

1-0

Round 2 - Jordan Goodwin on Blue Storm

Game one I have turn one Sphere on the play. He plays a few islands but accidently drops a Snap at one point so I know what he's on for game two. Game two he has answer for my first Sphere, but I have a second one and a Naturalize for his Helm. He has another Helm and a Sapphire Medallion, but I have another Sphere and my LD spells keep him from ever casting Frantic Search. 

2-0

Round 3 - Ian Hendry on GR OathPonza

I think game one I have turn one Sylvan into Sphere and some LD. He never has a Mox to catchup and the tempo is too much. Game two is similar except I think I have a second Mox plus a Plow for his Terravore and win without much resistance.

3-0

Round 4 - Scott Blumenthal on UW Replenish

I don't remember much about first two games, but game three comes down to a point where I have to hope he doesn't have Replenish plus Land in his hand. I screw up and port his Ancient Tomb with him at 1 life so now he doesn't need the land and I die to his Replenish. Time had just been called and I was trying to win the game instead of taking the slower line that may have resulted in a draw / victory for me not in 5 turns, but I also just punted by tapping the wrong land.

3-1

Round 5 - Sam Black on Enchantress w/ Red

Game one I maybe LD the wrong land on turn three letting him Gaea's Blessing plus Seal of Fire away my Terravore. Game two I think I have turn one Sphere and win. Game three he has four Tsabo's Web and I'm never really in it. 

3-2

Round 6 - Guillaume Soucy on UW Landstill

Game one is a race under Standstill my two Factory vs his two Conclave but he gets to attack first. I don't draw any land based interaction and am forced to break Standstill with a Swords when he's attacking for lethal. I decided to play into the race because I'm mostly happy with him tapping out for Conclave every turn instead of cycling Decree of Justice. Game two I win when he never uses his Dust Bowl for some reason. Game three he has multiple Teferi's Response and multiple Dust Bowl and I can't really interact favorably.

3-3

Round 7 - Louis Neiman on GB Rock

Game one I have Sphere and Port to keep him from doing much of anything. Game two he has Pernicious Deed and I force him to use it on an Oath. I am keeping his mana down with two Ports but eventually he casts Ravenous Baloth. My board is empty so I decide to hold back on Port because what's the worst that could happen? If you said back to back turns of hard cast Krosan Tusker, you were right. Game three I managed to LD him enough that he doesn't play much and my Call of the Herd get some card advantage.

4-3

Round 8 - Robert Matthew Rivera on UW Stiflenought

Game one I win with turn one Sphere and some follow up LD. I only saw Islands but assume he's on 12/12 of some kind. Game two he wins even after I destroy his only white source in a spot he didn't want me to. He just found second Dreadnought and won anyway. Game three he has Tsabo's Web constricting my mana somewhat. I play a Call of the Herd and do maybe 3 damage but he makes a Dreadnought. I attack again with the Elephant and he blocks, which lets me cast Oath of Druids. He attacks me to 8, but I get an 8/8 Terravore plus hard cast one from my hand to have blockers. He can't find another spell to make a Dreadnought off of Oath so it is draw go for a couple of turns. I find Naturalize and attack him down to 4 and he Oath into another 12/12 but it isn't enough to stop my all out attack the following turn.

5-3

Old School

This is mostly from two month old notes at this point. (Even longer!)

I played Twiddle Vault. I think it is the best deck because it can play both draw sevens and Counterspell without being strategically dubious. 

Round 1 - Brian Mann on UrzaTron Twiddle Vault

Game one I don't see his Time Vaults as he only plays some Tron lands, an Icy, and a Power Sink. I manage to combo easily as he doesn't have much going on. Game two he surprises me with a turn one Time Vault. We both end up with Time Vaults in play. He uses Twiddle to take an extra turn, so I burn a Twiddle on mine to cancel it. I then have a sequence of Hurkyl's into Mana Drain into Timetwister into Mind Twist and win from there.

1-0

Round 2 - Mark Tocco on The Deck

Game one I'm in a pretty good spot and resolve Timetwister but don't draw anything good off of it and he's able to take control. Game two I have Mind Twist into Erhnam Djinn that gets the job done. Game three was much longer. My notes say he missed an Orb flip on my Sylvan Library and I find an Erhnam shortly after. He's forced to use Divine Offering on my Sol Ring to stay alive but never finds an answer for the creature.

2-0

Round 3 - Jason Lee Smith on Black with Blue

Game one he has a very strong start turn one with Black Knight and Hymn to Tourach. He follows it up with a Sinkhole. I do manage to stick a Howling Mine and Sylvan Library and that lets me recover enough to win mostly easily. Game two he has three Hymn but I once again stick Howling Mine. I draw three Twiddles on the last turn before I would die and chain turns until I find Recall and win.

3-0

Round 4 - Michael Arnold on BRU Stuff

Game one I use Timetwister when I'm down to 8 life but have to pass the turn. He can't kill me on his turn and I have enough to win. Game two he has an early Energy Flux and I can't really do anything. Game three I have basically the best possible hand of Sapphire, Library, Ancestral, Demonic Tutor. I almost manage to punt when I DT for a Howling Mine that does absolutely nothing in the situation. To compound this, he has turn one Sol'Kanar so my Erhnam doesn't look great. I think I Chaos Orb the Swamp King and Mind Twist him so the Djinn eventually gets there, but it is way closer than it ever should have been.

4-0

Thanks to Simon, we have action photo of me wasting the Demonic Tutor

Round 5 - Liwen Li on Shops with Burn

Game one I play a turn one Sylvan, he has turn one Sol Ring. I think he is on The Deck for some reason so I pay 8 life on my turn. He then deploys a Juggernaut and finishes me off with some burn spells before I get anything going. Game two I'm forced to go for combo when I'm at 4 life and he has Triskelion in play. I can't tap any City of Brass but I manage to get there. Game three was really cool and I wish I had better notes. I know it involved Erhnam racing against Juggernaut and I used Twiddles to stop his attacks for enough turns to win. There may have been a stack at some point where I had both REB and BEB to stop his interaction.

5-0

Round 6 - Jens Jaeger on Shops

This was on stream. Game one I Timetwister in a great spot but completely miss and he kills me two turns later. Game two I mulligan to five and never really find anything.

5-1

Round 7 - Michael Phillips on Black with Blue

Game one he mulligans to four. Game two he mulligans to five. It's not a great matchup for him anyway but the mulligans really hurt.

6-1

Round 8 - Emily Sprague on UWR

Wish I had better notes on this one. Game one I use Timetwister to combo and have just enough mana. Game two her clock is just too fast and I die. Game three I mulligan to five but my hand is okay. She has turn one Lotus into Serendib and my Falling Star looks pretty bad. I don't remember how close I got but my notes say I needed to cast two Red spells in a turn but didn't have double red. That doesn't sound like I was in a good spot either way.

6-2

12th place

I was a bit disappointed in my finish, but the event was still a great experience. In the time since moving to the northeast, I've really got to know a lot of the old school magic community. It felt like everywhere I looked, there was someone I recognized. It reminded me of the 2012 Grand Prix San Antonio, where I'm sure I knew over half of the competitors thanks to all my time on the Texas PTQ circuit.

I also really appreciated everyone that was supporting me between rounds. There is a lot of talk about spice or spike in the OS community and sometimes I feel the smallest amount of guilt for trying as hard as I do. However, I do think having a group of spikey players at the tournament adds a legitimacy to  the  events and the format in general that even non-spikes appreciate. If everyone was doing silly stuff, it wouldn't feel as special. And maybe you don't think you have what it takes to be the best of the best, but its nice to know that its possible.

That's about all I have to say now. 

Chains of Bogardan at the Storm Crow Cup

(Editor's Note: I'm trying to go with a more streamlined approach to posting, so I can get things actually out. Stay tuned for some overdue posts)

This past Saturday I played in the Storm Crow Cup in Philadelphia. The format was Scryings, of which I am a huge fan. 

The Deck

Scryings offers so many directions that I really don't want to play the same thing twice. I believe TwiddleVault or Reanimator to be the best deck, but there is lots of room for fun  if you aren't going all-out to win.

Here is what I played:

Chains of Bogardan

This deck began as a concept for the third deck for Team Unified at MobsterCon last year. When my teammate Dan mentioned that he owned three copies of Chains of Mephistopheles, it went from being a fringe sideboard card to a possible build-around. Chains is very good against the two best decks in Scryings thanks to its interaction with Howling Mine and Bazaar of Baghdad, as well as Lat-Nam's Legacy and various Libraries and Books. We didn't go with any of the five versions I brewed up for other reasons, but I wanted to revisit the idea next time I had the opportunity.

The way the deck works is by assembling Chains with Anvil of Bogardan. This restricts any player with an empty hand to effectively drawing no more cards the rest of the game. In the draw step after you draw for turn, the Anvil will trigger with "draw plus discard". However, Chains forces you to discard first, so you discard the card you drew for the turn, and then mill one. There is a window where you can play an instant, but only if it is the first card you draw for the turn. Players with cards in their hands at the start of the turn will get a lot of "rummages" and "loots", but won't net any cards. Each card they subsequently played gets them closer to being locked.

There are many ways you can build the deck to break the symmetry and win once the lock is in place. Having more Mishra's Factories in play than the opponent is one. Other options include Stormbind (you can do 2 damage in your draw step before the Anvil trigger), Sacred Mesa (you just need 4 mana in play to net one Pegasus a turn), The Rack (self-explanatory), Nether Shadow / Ashen Ghoul, Hammer of Bogardan (rebuying every turn lets you draw a card, plus eventually you can burn them out), and just by being ahead on board with creatures. Also to note, Thawing Glaciers lets you continue to make land drops while being able to cast one additional sorcery-speed spell in the game.

I decided to build with creatures plus Hammer, since this was a better deck when the combo is not online. Also, Bogardan name is on theme. For creatures you want the ones that are most resilient to instant speed removal and also better on average than your opponents. River Boa and Sedge Troll were early candidates since they dodge Bolt. Wildfire Emissary dodges Bolt and STP while being a good mana sink to close the game ASAP.

Getting the opponent empty handed to make the lock work is also important. Stupor is a solid card that probably doesn't see enough play. It's not quite as good as Hymn to Tourach, but not by that much. Being able to use off-color Mox to cast it is huge. At some point (likely in the build with The Rack), I had as many as 4 Winds of Change which Mind Twists both players if Chains is in play. I decided Winds wasn't powerful enough on its own. The Wheel of Fortune also went in and out a few times, but it's a much stronger card. I didn't play Library of Alexandria because I couldn't imagine every activating it.

The sideboard was mainly to shore up against creatures that don't die to Bolt and Hammer, as well as the creatureless matchups. Dwarven Miner also had the potential to even further lock the opponent out. 

Big props to Jared Susney for letting me borrow the 3 Chains I needed for the event.

The Games

Round 1 - Jared Susney on RW Dreadnought

Speaking of Jared... Game one I have turn two Mind Twist for 4, leaving him with one card. His next turn he plays Mask plus Dreadnought. I have Maze of Ith to try to buy time, but eventually he finds a second one and I die 4 points short of burning him out. Game two I Stupor him a few times. He's in topdeck mode but managed to get a Rukh Egg in play. I have Maze and some Sedge Troll beat downs to chip away. Eventually I Fireball him for the win. Game three he has Disenchant for Mox and Chaos Orb for a Maze to set me back. He follows up with Mask plus two Dreadnought and I have zero answers.

0-1

Round 2 - Eureka Shivan on Lich with Dreadnought

Game one I have turn two Chains, but no black mana. I play Anvil instead and he kills me on his turn. Game two he has Disenchant for two of my Chains. I do get him low on life, but he finds Mask plus Dreadnought to stabilize. He can't attack because he's dead on the backswing to Emissary, but his Sylvan finds a second Dreadnought to kill me.

0-2

Round 3 - Tom Swindell on Twiddle Vault

Game one he has Emerald Charm for my first Chains. He has three Howling Mine plus a Vault when he casts Timetwister, but doesn't find an untap effect. I play Chains on my turn which he Mana Drains. I follow up with Demonic Tutor for third Chains and this one sticks. I use Wheel to put us both in instants-only mode. I beat down with two Factories hoping to dodge an Emerald Charm on any of his first draws. He never gets there and I win. Game two I don't remember that well. He Transmutes but doesn't have Howling Mines left in the deck. He's forced to get Su-Chi, which I think trades with a Emissary. I have a REB for his Time Walk and then resolve a Chains, but I don't remember how I kill him.

1-2

Tom experiences the lock supported by Factory beatdown

Round 4 - Parker on Greed Ivory Tower Mirror Universe

Game one he has Disenchant for Chains and buries me with Greed plus Tower. Game two I sneak a win when he neglects to use Mirror Universe at 7 life and I have enough burn to take him out. Game three I play three Mox plus Land Lotus for Emissary and Troll turn 1. He has turn two Balance, but I'm far ahead on mana and have Miner in play. He does draw follow up Ancestral, but then I find Chains plus Anvil and take out his mana for an almost flawless victory (he has a Zuran Orb in play).

2-2

Near flawless victory

Round 5 - Chris Nemeth (Neemzor) on Goblins

Game one I'm too slow and die to a Ball Lightning. I side out 4 Chains and 4 Anvil. Game two and three I just midrange him out with bigger creatures plus Stupor to empty his dangerous burn. Game three he lands a Blood Moon, but that just turns on my own Hammer recursion.

3-2

Round 6 - Ian on Goblins

I get full lock with two Emissary vs his two Miners while at 4 life. I attack for 4 a turn with one Emissary hoping to dodge a Lightning Bolt. He's forced to chump the turn before he finds the Bolt and I win. I side out the lock pieces again. Game two he has just enough burn to finish me off. Game three I just midrange value and win.

4-2

Winning  with this board G1 was the highlight for me

I ended up the last of all the 4-2s in 12th place. Also didn't get first or second on spice, which hurt a bit more. I've probably looked at way more Scryings decks that most so I wasn't really impressed with the ones that won, but if you've never seen them before I guess they are much spicier.

The End

I had a great time preparing for the event. I had an even better time at the event, despite my foot barely functioning (there was plenty of alcohol available to help with that).

Props:

Dan and all the Philly OS group for putting on great event at a great location

Jared for lending me Chains

Everyone who traveled from much further away than I would have

Gregg for winning the whole thing (good thing I caught that incorrect pairing round 4!)

One Magic Play - Overanalyzed

Picture this: It's the final game of the final match of the tournament. The board state is such that either you or your opponent will be dead within the next turn cycle. You will win the game if nothing happens, but just barely. You have the opportunity to win the game this turn, but going for it creates a risk that you might lose immediately. How do you decide what to do?

I was recently in this situation. Perhaps because it was the final play of the entire tournament, or the uniqueness of some of the cards involved, this one has stood out to me. I spent several hours over the next day thinking about it and wondering if I actually got the play right. Thinking through conditional probabilities has lead to some confusing moments, but I think I've found an approach that results in clarity. 

This post will talk about that situation, as well as some similar situations that arise as a thought experiment.

The Game State

With actual deck lists and board state photos, an exact answer should be obtainable.

Deck lists:

Noah Shanning - Counterburn

(SB for game three: -1 Wheel, -1 Chain, -1 Lat Nam, -1 Pyroclasm, +2 Crypt, +1 Maze, +1 Blood Moon) (This is his actual sideboarding which I will use for analysis. In game, I assumed he may have some Pyroblasts as well since it can race a Deep Spawn in some situations)

Ty Thomason - Reanimator

(SB for game three: -1 Mana Crypt, -1 Mox Emerald, -1 Mox Ruby, -2 Disenchant, -1 Ashen Ghoul, -1 Mind Twist, +4 Hymn +3 Contagion)

Board state:

8 life with one unknown card in hand

4 life with the 4 cards in hand

The Options

The two main decisions at this point in the game are whether or not I should attack with Deep Spawn, and whether or not I should try to remove the Gorilla Shaman if I do attack so that it represents lethal damage.

Not attacking will not let me win. I will be at one life on my next turn so even Demonic Tutor for Contagion won't work. If I draw Contagion, I could Demonic Tutor for Black Lotus (or vice versa), but would still be one mana short from paying the cost. Even Consultation after a top deck of Lotus or Contagion would require tapping City of Brass. Attacking also leaves the opponent at 1 life after his upkeep, which means the Serendib will kill him before he can attack on the following turn. So even if he draws a removal for Deep Spawn (REB or Chaos Orb), attacking will win the race. Therefore, I must attack.

There are two ways to attempt to remove the Gorilla Shaman. The first is to cast Demonic Consultation for the last Contagion in my deck. The other option is to cast Demonic Consultation for one of four Bazaar of Baghdad, play the Bazaar and activate, and draw Black Lotus and Chaos Orb. I'm not going to do the math, but I think the Consult for Contagion is a bit more likely...

Any time opponent has a burn spell in hand, I lose the game. I am already dead to Psionic Blast, and any other spell will finish me off after Serendib attacks on the opponent's following turn. I will also lose to burn spell when I tap City of Brass to attempt to Consultation. We can ignore those situations. Therefore, assume no burn spells in opponent's hand.

If I attempt to remove the Shaman and my opponent has a Counterspell (Counterspell, Mana Drain, or Force of Will in this case) I will lose on the swing back. If I do not attempt to remove the Shaman, I will lose only to a non-Psionic Blast burn spell off the top during my opponents following turn. Also, sometimes I lose to my own Demonic Consultation.

So which choice gives me the best chance to win?

Detailed Analysis

Any creature in hand would have been played by opponent. This would provide an option to block and survive while still having enough damage left to attack back for the win. It also removes my option of holding back Deep Spawn to block. Therefore, assume no creatures can be in hand.

Additionally other cards we can rule out from being in his hand: Maze of Ith and Mishra's Factory (he played a Volcanic Island last turn), Blood Moon, Chaos Orb, Lat-Nams Legacy, Merchant Scroll, Time Walk, Ancestral Recall, Braingeyser and Timetwister. I don't know if he would play Tormod's Crypt at this point, so we will assume he could still have that.

Possible cards in his hand:

4 Island

4 City of Brass

2 Volcanic Island

1 Library of Alexandria

2 Tormod's Crypt

1 Counterspell

1 Force of Will

1 Mana Drain

So 3/16 of the time he will have a Counterspell here. (~19%)

What are the outs he can top decks to win if we give him an additional turn to live?

4 Lightning Bolt

3 Incinerate

1 Chain Lightning

So 8/47 is lethal. (~17%)

5 Redraws with Ancestral Recall, Merchant Scroll, Timetwister, Lat-Nam's Legacy, and Braingeyser (Time Walk will not win as he will die to Serendib before his next draw)

Redraws represent an additional 2% or so.

3 Drawing the game with Psionic Blast (~6%  plus ~0.5% on redraw)

Missing with Demonic Consultation - 14%

How to Interpret the Numbers

Here is where I may not have this exactly correct. How can you combine these probabilities to get the correct picture? (Reminder, all of this math is conditional on not being dead to burn spell in hand already.)

Is it right to say you lose 33% of the time by casting Consultation (19% to Counterspell and 14% to Consult itself)? No you have to combine the times they both fail and subtract from 100%, so this happens ~30% of the time.

Do you win 75% of the time you just attack without casting Consultation (100-17-2-6)? I think this approach works. 

But where I'm not sure I'm confident is the comparison of these values: 70% to win by casting Consultation vs 75% to win by not casting it. This would say that not casting it is better by about 5%.

Another way to look at it:

Assume instead of Consultation you have Contagion in hand. Sometimes, you cast Contagion and win the game, but you also would have won that game by not casting it (opponent's hand is blank and they don't draw the burn to kill you). Therefore, you only should cast it if the odds they have burn spell on top is greater than the odds they have a Counterspell in hand. Our math places both of those probabilities right around 19%. So with Contagion in hand, you probably can go either way. However, the added 14% fail rate of Consultation means you should not cast it and instead hope to fade the top deck.

What if you have a read?

Sometimes you may have a read that the opponent has a Counterspell in hand. If you increase the chances they hold a counter, you can see the math will favor not casting a spell even more. This applies even if you have Contagion instead of Consultation.

Maybe you have the opposite read and know with high certainty the opponent is holding a land? You still would need to do the math on missing with Consultation vs them top decking a burn spell. This would favor casting Consultation by about 5%, but you can imagine situations where you should not cast it because it would add risk of losing compared to not.

What did I do?

I did not have time during the match to do such thorough analysis. My thought process was something like this: I lose 15% of the time to Consultation, I think it is likely his last card is a Counterspell given the way the past two turns had played out, so I should not play any spell and just attack. This is what I did and I won the game because of it. My opponent showed me the Mana Drain that was in his hand, along with the Chaos Orb he top decked that was a turn too late.

 At the time, I wasn't sure I made the right play, but I feel a bit better about it after doing this analysis. And so I won the NEOS Season 12 December Monthly.

If you think there is something else to consider or a cleaner way to present this math, please let me know.

My Romancing the Stones End of Year Report

(Editors Note: This was mostly written in December, but not published until March of 2025).

I've really been slacking on the blog posts this year. I played in a lot of events, and only wrote three reports. I even skipped writing a report on an event I won!

I've decided to summarize all my events of last year into a few posts. This is the first one on the Romancing the Stones run events. I hope to do another one for other Old School or Premodern events, and a final one that is just my Lobstercon report (it's over half done already!).

Romancing the Stones Middle School Leagues

I played in the three online MS leagues. I was unable to attend either Festival of Friendship or Houston Hurricane this year, so no OS or Vintage.

Dance Party - 9th Place

For the first league of the year, I played Worldgorger Dragon combo. I ran back the same list I used at the MS World Championships a month prior. I went 4-2 and finished 9th on tiebreakers. I defeated Nether Spirit Control and three others I cannot remember. I lost to TerraGeddon and MonoWhite Wayfarer. TerraGeddon had Sphere of Resistance and Wasteland to slow me down. MonoWhite used Wayfarer for Wastelands and had all angles of disruption. I guess I'll always be losing to Wayfarer Wasteland in these events.

I still think Dragon is a good deck (more on that in the future?). It's a lot harder to play than I ever would have expected, but the list is getting closer every time I play it.

School's Out Forever

I threw UR Stasis together right before the event and forgot to include Pyroblast in the SB which is one of the main reasons to even splash. I really liked the idea of switching to Sea Drake after SB. There might even be a UR Aggro deck out there. I went 5-1 in the Swiss before losing to Landstill in the top 8. I think I won a lot of my matches with Sea Drake as a surprise. A few opponents were not that familiar with the Stasis plan and I took advantage. I don't think this list is that strong, every game felt close. Arcane Denial is bad.

Fall Semester

I originally planned on playing a different list (no spoilers for future leagues here) but never found the time to brew on it. Instead, I made modifications to Michael Arnold's Lobstercon Elves list. I cut Elvish Champions from main for extra land and maximum of the good cards. Didn't play Champion in the SB either, but it may be an option. Absolute Law is suspect, but Armageddon was great. Thornscape Battlemage was MVP. I'd probably want another Battlemage and a Pyroblast in the SB.

This is recent enough I can do round by round:

R1 - Jeff on Sligh

I got to untap with a Priest of Titania somehow and won G1. G2 I think I had turn 2 Absolute Law but it wasn't enough. G3 he mulligan to 5 and I had Masticore I think.

1-0

R2 - Patrick on Landstill

I win G1 with just enough damage attacking and then Battlemage to kill him after combat. G2 he had an Exalted Angel and just raced me. G3 I win by lots of value with Acolyte and Symbiote.

2-0

R3 - Daisuke on UR Control

G1 I win with turn two Survival easily. G2 he has to counter my Absolute Law which lets me get him with Armageddon.

3-0

R4 - Gregg on Aluren

I don't remember G1 or G3, but G2 was an epic where I had to answer Plague Spitter, Engineered Plague, and Goblin Sharpshooter (thanks to Thornscape Battlemage). I had sided out my Masticore so couldn't close the door and his Walls stopping my attacks. I go for Armageddon but he draws just enough lands to cast Aluren and his last card is Recruiter. I still have a shot by flashing in a Acolyte and I need to draw Symbiote to untap an Elf, pick up a creature, and search for Lyrist and have the mana to activate it. I did not draw the Symbiote though. (Note: thinking back, this line doesn't really make sense to me but this is how I remember it)

4-0

R5 - Shun on Worldgorger Dragon

G1 he bricked and never found a dragon. He did Animate Dead Ambassador Laquatas to block but was quickly overwhelmed. G2 I had a good start with both Crypt and Lyrist. I was able to keep Lyrist up and eventually Armageddon set him too far back to recover.

5-0

R6 - Tak on UGw Madness

G1 I have Survival and he did not have Force of Will. I win easily from there. G2 he has Meddling Mage for Survival, but I naturally draw Masticore, Genesis, and Hermit to grind him out.

6-0

I'm first seed after Swiss. My R1 through R6 opponents all made top 8 as well. 

QF - Keith on The Rock

Probably my worst matchup in the top 8. He has four Plague in the sideboard, but fortunately for me he only has two Deed main. I don't really remember G1 or G2. G3 I feel like I'm going to lose but eventually chain enough Acolyte and Symbiote activations to pull it out.

7-0

SF - David on MonoU Flyers

Third time we've met in the top 8. He's out for revenge. This was probably the best match of the tournament. I actually have some detailed notes:

G1 mull to 6 I lead Llanowar into Survival, but he has Foil. His start of Sprite plus Curiosity means I can't really wait to draw better. My turn 3 Acolyte is countered, and I draw a bunch of lands and lose.

G2 I play turn one Llanowar Elves and turn two play 3 more elves with the help of a Cradle. He has turn 2 Sprite but he's holding up Annul. I play two more elves and start attacking. He goes to 9 before finding Hibernation, but Cradle lets me replay enough that I win the race easily.

G3 I mulligan to 5, keep hand of Survival, Acolyte, Granger, two lands, putting a 3rd land and Battlemage on the bottom. He has turn 1 Sprite. I play land and pass. He plays two more Sprites. I play Survival, but it resolves! He plays turn 3 Sea Drake. I search for Wellwisher and play it, but he has Foil. He attacks me down to 8. On my turn I search for another Wellwisher and play it, this one resolves. He attacks me to 1. I play Quirion Ranger, Fyndhorn, gain 3 life, then return forest to untap Wellwisher play acolyte and gain 4. I gain 4 more on his turn. Now I'm at 12 and he attacks me to 5. I attack for 4 on my turn and gain 8 more life, but don't have a creature to use with Survival. He attacks with just the 1/1s for now leaving back Drake to block. So now I can just use Wellwisher once a turn and not have to bounce all my forests. Eventually I find a creature for Survival then find Squee and win easily from there, grinding through two more Force of Wills along the way.

8-0

Now I've beat everyone in the top 8 at one point in this league.

Finals - Tak on UGw Madness

I'm on the play G1 and my Survival resolves. I win easily from there. G2 he has Meddling Mage and I die with two Survivals in hand. G3 he has Mage on Survival and Mage on Hermit. Eventaully I find red mana for my MVP Thornscape Battlemage which I use with Symbiote to stabilize the board. Symbiote plus Battlemage / Acolyte means he can't really do anything and I win without drawing Survival.

9-0

So I finally win one of these leagues after four other top eights and two finals losses, plus three ninth places. winning qualified me for the Invitational. I wasn't sure at first if I would go, but I didn't have any big Magic events for the rest of the year. I was skipping Eternal Weekend and wanted one more thing to play. I committed to flying to Austin to play.

 

RTS Invitational

(Editors Note: I never wrote this part, so this just from memory months later)

I played Landstill in MS because I think its the best deck, even though I've never played it before. I was also expecting a field of mostly Burn/Sligh and Dreadnoughts, which was accurate.

I don't remember why I chose Oath, but I think I expected mostly Lurrus decks. I was wrong here, but wasn't unhappy with my choice.

Vintage I went 2-1. I lost to Rob Connely, beat Ben in the mirror, and then beat Stu after an awkward situation in game 2 where he tapped his opal for mana multiple turns without metalcraft. I was in a winning spot anyway and would have been further ahead had we caught it, so he conceded. I won game three by hard casting Atraxa on turn four.

Middle School I went 2-1. I lost to Tweedy in a terrible match, but managed to beat Lizzy on RG Oath and Paul on Dreadnought easily enough. I almost decked myself against Lizzy in game one though.

Top four I beat Rob Wilson with early Shown and Tell after seeing the coast was clear with a Probe. I lost the finals to Chase which should be on video somewhere. I may have over mulligan and was probably too aggressive with the trap in the third game.

Invitational was great and I'm really glad I finally got to play in one. 

Conclusion

Now that I'm finally publishing this, I've already completed the first league of 2025. I suppose I should start on that report. It looks to be a fun one.