Last weekend there was a Modern PTQ here in my hometown of Houston. Asgard Games, (the store which I occasionally write for), was hosting their first PTQ. This was exciting for me since I can walk to the store, and exciting for other people I know who were unhappy with the way 3rd Coast Cards ran their tournaments.
I played the same deck as I did in Philadelphia, with a few changes. Khalni Heart Expedition got cut because it just wasn't good enough. This allowed for cutting of some of the excess basic lands and adding in more shocklands, so now the mana is better. The extra space allowed me to move the Pyroclasms to the maindeck. I also cut a Prismatic Omen for a Muddle the Mixture, since it can be both, and more. The sideboard is similar in theory, different in execution. Back to Nature was added in place of Cyclonic Rift to deal with Leyline of Sanctity and Blood Moon since the Bogle deck started showing up. I knew a bunch of people were playing Splinter Twin so I fit in the Combust, and changed one Ancient Grudge to a Seal of Primordium. I decided Vexing Shusher is the best card to have in the matchups where you want something like that. This is the list I registered:
4 Sakura Tribe Elder
4 Primeval Titan
4 Farseek
4 Search for Tomorrow
4 Scapeshift
4 Remand
4 Izzet Charm
3 Pyroclasm
2 Prismatic Omen
1 Muddle the Mixture
4 Valakut the Molten Pinnacle
4 Stomping Ground
3 Steam Vents
2 Breeding Pool
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Scalding Tarn
2 Forest
1 Island
4 Mountain
Sideboard:
3 Ancient Grudge
4 Obstinate Baloth
1 Pyroclasm
1 Negate
2 Back to Nature
2 Vexing Shusher
1 Combust
1 Seal of Primordium
I'm much happier with this list going forward than the old one. I would play this exact 75 again.
I can't get the PWP website to load, so I don't have opponent names, but I'll do my best.
R1 - RG Tron
Game 1 He mulligans to five, has to spend the first three turns just trying to hit his land drops. I Scapeshift on turn 5 to kill him. Game 2 I mulligan to five, he has turn 4 Karn, and starts killing my lands. I die with three Titans in hand. Game 3 I'm on the play, he doesn't have turn 3 Karn, so I Prismatic Omen on turn 4 and Primeval Titan for 21 on turn 5.
1-0
R2 - Chris Jabr - Burn
Chris is a local Asgard player. Game 1 He plays Goblin Guide on turn 1, and my first three lands did two damage to me. I died. Game 2 I remand his Keldon Marauders twice, then play two Obstinate Baloths. He still has enough damage to get me to 8 life, but I it wasn't enough to stop Prime Time from doing his thing. Game 3 We both mulligan to 6. I keep six lands two Baloths. He plays turn 0 Leyline of Punishment. Consider me punished. He has turn 1 Goblin Guide to go with it. Unfortunately for him, he only has the one land. I play out my Baloths and try to attack him. I rip a timely Muddle the Mixture to counter his Flames of the Bloodhand, and then topdeck Scapeshift while at 2 life to win the game. Very close.
2-0
R3 - Moe Raval - Splinter Twin
Moe is a buddy. We are going to PT Montreal together. But he's always talking smack, and I never hesitate to talk it right back. Game 1 He casts Izzet Charm to loot, and then I kill him with Scapeshift on turn 5 with three mana open. Game 2 I have Seal of Primordium, so he holds back on his Blood Moon and instead Vendillion Cliques me, putting my mostly dead Negate to the bottom of my deck, and drawing me into the two lands I needed to kill him with Scapeshift. He didn't really seem to understand what he was doing in this matchup.
3-0
R4 - David Shakarisaz - Splinter Twin
David is also going to PT Montreal with me. After Moe lost to me in round 3, David was giving him shit for losing. "It's such a good matchup I never lose to that deck!" Then I beat him 2-0. Game 1 was odd. I Izzet Charm his Pestermite when he casts Splinter Twin, then double Pyroclasm his follow up Deceiver Exarch. He never draws another untapper, and I eventually stick Primeval Titan. Game 2 he makes a strange series of filter plays: Turn 1 Serum Visions, keep both on top; turn 2 Sleight of Hand, take the card he saw already, then Serum Visions, put both on bottom. I know there isn't always a right order to play those cards, but this seemed very strange to me. I supposed the card on top could have been the second Serum Visions. Anyway, he lands Blood Moon on turn 3, but I immediately rip Back to Nature. I wait until I'm going to go off, and in the mean time I've draw Vexing Shusher, so I just force through the Scapeshift. He had drawn all lands.
4-0
R5 - Scapeshift
He's playing a more traditional Scapeshift list with Cryptic Command and no Primeval Titans. Game 1 He's on the play but doesn't have any ramp, so I can turn 5 go for it with counter backup. Game 2 He plays turn 0 2x Leyline of Sanctity, and I die eventually since I never draw an answer. Game 3 He has turn 0 Leyline again. We both ramp, but I'm short on blue mana to transmute for Back to Nature. Eventually I draw it, but still don't have enough counter mana to force through the Scapeshift. Eventually I get to 10 mana and transmute for Shusher and cast it. He Cryptic Commands it. I say ok. Then I have to tell him that its uncounterable. He draws his card, discouraged. I then play Scapeshift and in response cast Back to Nature, with two mana floating. He Lightning Bolts my Shusher, so I make Back to Nature uncounterable. Then I make Scapeshift uncounterable, but he Remands in response. So now I'm tapped out with two Scapeshifts in hand, and he gets to untap with 9 mana and 4 cards in hand. I think I'm dead, but he just passes. I untap and play Scapeshift, which he Cryptic Commands, but the second one gets him.
5-0
Since the tournament was only 110 players and 7 rounds, I should be able to draw in. I'm in first place on the standings and I'm hoping I get paired against one of the other 5-0 players and not paired down...
R6 - Will Lowry - Splinter Twin
But of course not. I get paired down, and even worse, it's my roommate. The worst possible thing. We talk about draws and concession possibilities, but nothing quite makes sense. So we play. Game 1 I have the nuts turn 4 Scapeshift and Omen. Game 2 I don't draw Scapeshift or Titan after ramping. Same game 3, but I would have won if I had held onto a fetch land instead of Stomping Ground on an Izzet Charm loot that I'm still not sure I did incorrectly.
5-1
R7 - GWb Hatebears
He got to ID last round, so I'm paired up. I'm third in standings behind the two 5-0-1 players. I discussed before the round about playing to get Top Seed and the play for all of the top 8. The play/draw rule is such that the higher seed gets to choose. I know that if I win, I will be first seed for all of top 8. I think that's huge for the deck I'm playing, and I still think my opponent is playing Melira Pod, which is a good matchup. So I tell him I want to play. He wins the die roll and has turn 2 Loxodon Smiter. I did not expect this, and my Pyroclasm isn't enough to buy me the time I thought it would. I die before I can draw a kill condition. Game 2 He doesn't play his Mindcensor until after I search with Primeval Titan, so I easily kill him. Game 3 He has turn 3 Linvala, and I somehow draw all of my Sakura Tribe Elders and die.
5-2
So I get 9th. Again after going X-0 with two rounds left. Maybe I'll keep playing it out and refuse to draw. But that is ridiculous. This time is partially my fault, since I could have ID in round 7 and didn't. But also the top 8 play/draw rule is silly and probably shouldn't factor into my decision ever. It would make me feel better about it if it only factored in a difference in match points instead of tiebreakers, since tiebreakers are somewhat random. Also if sponsor invites are about "keeping people from getting discouraged", they should be able to account for the X-0 0-2 top 8 miss, since that is the most discouraging thing ever, but apparently they can't look at that.
For reference, just some estimates I had going into the last round that affected my decision. For my situation, I thought that:
ID gets top eight 90+% of the time
My deck is ~10% better on the play
I have a 55-60% favorable matchup in round 7 (actually probably less, but I thought he was on melira pod)
I have a ~30% chance to top 8 with a loss (no one else was ID besides table 2. 30% is for the 4-1-1 guy to lose and have no unintentional draws)
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