I picked it up and immediately got the last 8 wins in a row to make Mythic. It wasn't just the high win rate or turn 3 and turn 4 kills. The real kicker for me was seeing the games that Muxus would win out of nowhere that no other card was capable of. Sure, you need to roll high on your top six cards to win them, but he gives you the chance. The fail rate of occasionally having a bad Muxus was more than compensated for by the times you killed them from 30 life and a dozen Zombie tokens.
I never really though I would play anything other than Goblins for the Arena Open, since even the decks going all out to beat Goblins could still lose to a turn 3 Muxus. I mostly worked on this list with Will Lowry and Jose Pineda, with some input from Drew Iafrate early on and Collin Rountree at the end of the process.
The Deck
Most Goblin decks are going to have a few things in common. 4 Prospector, Wily Goblin, and Goblin Instigator to enable the early Muxus, 4 Muxus for the payoff, and 4 Goblin Chieftain as the best way to kill immediately when Muxus resolves.
One card that surprised me early on and continued to impress until I played all 4 was Krenko Mob Boss. The real combo of the deck is Chieftain plus Krenko. Muxus is just the best way to cast those two cards at the same time. The interaction between Conspicious Snoop and Krenko lets you win some otherwise unwinnable games, and enables turn 3 and turn 4 kills without Muxus. Maximizing Goblin Warchief to make sure Krenko has haste was the next logical step.
I always wanted at least 24 lands. You win a lot of games by casting Muxus for the full price after your first wave or early Muxus is answered. When you have 5 lands in play and a Muxus in hand, land is by far the best possible drawstep. Phyrexian Tower lets you play Muxus a full turn earlier without Prospector or Warchief, and the curve of Warchief into Tower lets you cast Muxus turn 4 without any other cards. Because you can announce Muxus for 3RR with Warchief in play and sacrifice Warchief to Tower to pay for Muxus, the cost reduction is already "locked in". This is an important interaction to remember.
The last spot was 4 Goblin Matron. This card lets you set up Muxus on turn 4 by either fetching the Grandee himself, or fetching a Prospector to act as a Ritual. Additionally, when you resolve Muxus and have a board full of goblins, Matron can go fetch another Muxus or a Krenko to make sure you have enough to actually kill the opponent. Being able to tutor for specific sideboard cards like Goblin Cratermaker, Goblin Trashmaster, Gempalm Incinerator, or Gobln Chainwhirler was not that relevant but occasionally came up.
Here is the final maindeck I settled on:
4 Skirk Prospector
4 Goblin Instigator
4 Wily Goblin
4 Conspicuous Snoop
4 Goblin Warchief
4 Goblin Matron
4 Goblin Chieftain
4 Krenko, Mob Boss
4 Muxus, Goblin Grandee
2 Phyrexian Tower
2 Castle Embereth
20 Mountain
The real story is in the cards I chose not to play. Fanatical Firebrand was nice to have as another one drop, but only actually good in the mirror as a way to kill Skirk Prospector. Goblin Chainwhirler was also nice to have in spots, but the metagame being hateful to goblins meant there weren't a lot of non-goblin decks you actually wanted it against. Goblin Ringleader was nice to refill your hand if they had an answer to the first Muxus, but was too clunky to cast. Maindeck Gempalm Incinerator was a consideration, but the card you most wanted to kill was Hushbringer and you can't use Matron to tutor up Incinerator with it in play. Siege Gang Commander almost made the cut as a one of, since sometimes you can search it up or hit it off Muxus and kill the opponent even if they have a Magmaquake on your turn, but it didn't come up enough in testing to be better than the next best card (probably an Instigator or a Matron.)
The Metagame
Matchups against sorcery speed sweepers in control decks and general midrange decks felt almost unloseable. Quickly the metagame shifted away from those decks to decks that can actually beat goblins. Here are some matchups and how I saw them going into the weekend:
Temur Rec (With or Without Field)
I don't think Field of the Dead does much to help the matchup against you. It's already a bad matchup for Goblins thanks to instant speed sweepers like Magmaquake and Flame Sweep. I'll discuss ways we tried to beat this deck later, but this was the big concern going into the event.
Mono Blue Flash / Tempo / UW Fliers
Counterspells are very good against Muxus. Here, the Goblin deck can win by playing first and getting enough pressure to force the issue, or by hitting Krenko of a Snoop and putting the game away early. It gets a lot better after sideboard for Goblins with Gempalm Incinerator and other cards, so it was mainly a best of one concern.
Mono Black Devotion
I don't think this deck is good, but Massacre Wurm can give you trouble if you don't remember to hold full control with Prospector in play. If Arena would actually give you priority in response, I doubt this deck would have the results that it does.
Mono Red Burn / Red Deck Wins
If you can hit land drops and resolve a Muxus and they don't have Ferocidon, you should be able to win. Your best draws are still easily disruptable and they have a fast enough clock that it turns out to be about 50/50 if they are playing correctly.
Jund / Rakdos Sacrifice
For a while, this was crushing me but eventually moved to the 4 Krenko plan and just tried to be more aggressive and less controlling and it got much better. I'd say its favorable, but it's going to depend on their sideboard choices.
Grayeyard Combo (Kethis and Breach)
Strictly a race, though sometimes they draw a one-of Urza's Ruinous Blast or something.
Mono White Auras
Probably the worst matchup game one since Hushbringer is so strong, but you can still win with Snoop / Krenko / Chieftain shenanigans if their clock isn't fast enough.
UW Control / Bant Field of the Dead / Other Controlish types
Very favorable game one. Could be tough after sideboard but they are slow clock. Sometimes when the first two Muxus don't get the job done, the third or fourth does.
How to beat Temur Reclamation
We tried a lot of options, but the best success was with Chance for Glory and Chandra Awakened Inferno.
Chance for Glory was good if they didn't know about it and you cast it in response to a sweeper on your turn (or when they tapped out in your end step for something and you think you can kill them). The card obviously requires some mana commitments, but with 8 dual lands and 4 Wily Goblin, it was castable when we needed it. My first run on day one actually played 2 Chance main but I didn't play against nearly enough Temur on day one to warrant it. I moved to the mono red version for the other two runs with goblins.
Chanda Awakened Inferno was only okay against Temur, but way better against the various Blue Flash decks and against control decks. Aether Gust isn't the best card agaisnt Muxus so many decks were playing Essence Scatter or Tale's End, which does nothing to stop Chandra. I even used here -X ability to exile an Uro from play and then win over the next few turns with emblem damage.
Day one:
My first run I used RW Goblins with Chance for Glory. I went 4-3 with losses to decks that Chance wasn't good against. For the next two runs, I was on the list I shared above. Both went 4-3 as well. The amount of White Auras I was facing was too high, so I decided to switch to something else to try to make day two.
Accidentally played both Chainwhirler and Ferocidon in my burn list after switching off goblins from first 3 runs. Obviously get to 7 wins with it. #MTGArenaOpen pic.twitter.com/Lw0ac5xGgE
— Ty Thomason (@ceciliajupe) August 1, 2020
I got there with RDW that played both Chainwhirler and Ferocidon. I don't think it was actually a good plan and mainly did it by mistake, but whatever works.
Day two:
For day 2, I decided to play mono red Goblins with Chandra in the sideboard and no Chance for Glory. I also moved an Incinerator main to maybe help against all the white aura decks I saw. I started off 2-0 against White Auras, but then lost to Red Deck Wins when I was missing land drops in a close game one and game three. My final loss was against another White Auras deck when I mulligan to 5 game one and never had a chance against all his hate in game two.
2-2 today with goblins in day 2 of the #MTGArenaOpen. Beat MonoWhite Auras twice before losing to RDW and MonoWhiteAuras. I'll have a blog writeup with my thoughts on goblins later this week. pic.twitter.com/FZD2JqzjcR
— Ty Thomason (@ceciliajupe) August 2, 2020
I like the cards and sideboard choices I made, but maybe the metagame was too harsh to actually play Goblins.
Thoughts on the Open in General
I think best of one is fine, but not great. The metagame for day two was much different than the metagame for the best of three ladder since most people (especially the white auras players) were running back the same deck. I still felt favored against the one-trick pony best of one decks, but you only get one shot day two. I really enjoyed preparing for the tournament, and had a good time playing in the event though. I would like to see one of these every month or so.
I'd have some thoughts on Historic, but they announced a bunch of bannings today including Wilderness Reclamation. I still think both Field of the Dead and Muxus need to be banned as well, but it is a start. I'm glad they are planning on reacting fast with everyone playing digitally these days. It might keep me playing MTG instead of playing Hearthstone Battlegrounds again.
Thanks,
Ty
Ty
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